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18 August 2006

Liar's Poker at Tuscan Square

So, at work, my manager and the one other member of our group (also more senior than me) really love going to Tuscan Square for our coffee breaks. The cappuccinos there (my usual choice, though my manager and co-worker usually get lattes) are absolutely heavenly. It feels fairly authentic too as they have Italian newspapers about for patrons to browse.
For those of you who don't know, I'm employed at a large securities broker/dealer, and I've been at this particular employer since May of this year. Prior to that, I was employed at a larger and more well-known securities firm, and this was the case with my manager and co-worker as well (although, they've been at this particular firm for about 3+ years now, and they came from different previous firms).
Anyway, yesterday during our mid-morning coffee break, we got to talking about Liar's Poker, initially the book written by a former bond trader, and then the game (which I had never played). So, of course, they taught me how it was done and expressed their surprise at the fact I didn't already know how to play, especially considering the parallels that can be drawn between the game and the behavior of the equity market. I was about to start describing the rules, but I think wiki does a much better job.
Consider the rules and the gameplay for a moment - and consider how the game would be played out with a large multitude of players (which, they kept telling me, was when it's most fun). It emulates the behaviors of traders in the equity market in a number of ways:

  • you're betting

  • you're betting based on what you know (the numbers in your hand)

  • you're betting based on what you don't know (the numbers in the hands of the other players)

  • and you're betting based on what others are betting based on what they know and don't know.


Traders always consider market intelligence to be paramount, but the dimension of knowing "what the other guy has", and what the other guy's doing also definitely directly affects what they decide to do next. And of course, when you're trading, it's never ever as clear cut as sitting across a visible number of other players, so then there's also the more complex dimension of considering how many other players just might be out there - and what each of them are going to do based on what each of them are seeing (and whether or not they see and perceive things the same way you do - and maybe they won't, based solely on what's in their particular hand).
Anyway, yeah I know. Too many words. But this is the sort of stuff that I find fascinating and it's why I do what I do (as my choice of occupation), that's what keeps me going. I definitely feel like I need more schooling though, some more formal training on subject matter like game theory (the why of the behaviors that are observed), and economics and finance (the rules of the game). But, enough for today (and for the week). Think it's time to watch some TV and relax around the apartment.


TV: That's a tough one. Think I'll turn it on and pick something recorded on the DVR. The next episode of Komyo ga Tsuji (with English subtitles) should be on TVJAPAN during the day tomorrow!
iPod: Off. Think I'll spend some time later tonight consolidating and cleaning up my iTunes Music Library.

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